This is a guest post from Dr. Matt Qvortrup, author of Referendums and Ethnic Conflict, in response to yesterday's historic independence vote in Scotland. The Scots chose to stay a part of the United Kingdom for now, but, as Qvortrup points out, maybe not for long.
“I’ll be back”, said Arnold Schwarzenegger’s character in the Terminator movie. Unless there is meaningful change and a substantial new deal for Scotland, a sequel of the first referendum will be coming to a polling station near you. Why is that?
Well, first of all, a little bit about the Scottish referendum. The No-side won. Though not by much. 55 percent is not a landslide. After all, Better Together (those opposing independence) had a 22 percent lead when the campaign started. They very nearly squandered it.
And this is why another referendum may be necessary. For the narrow margin is a wake-up call to the chattering classes at Westminster. If Messrs. David Cameron (the Prime Minister) and opposition leader Ed Miliband don’t make good on their promises, we’ll get another referendum. And next time the result could be Yes.